Space Weather Forecast Headline: Slight Chance G1 bookending forecast period. Further Active electron fluence Likely into new week.

Analysis of Space Weather Activity over past 24 hours

Solar Activity: Activity was low, with the largest flare of the period a small common-class X-ray flare from off-going large sunspot region on the northwestern solar horizon, peaking at 07/1224UTC.

There are currently five sunspot regions on the facing side of the Sun. The largest and most complex group on the facing side is now in the southeast, initially showing areal decay before some late development of intermediate spots. Other groups were generally smaller and simpler.

No Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were noted in available imagery in the period.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: The solar wind initially showed a slow regime, however this soon gave was to a discontinuity at 07/0016UTC, perhaps the shock from the awaited 03 June CME. It is also possible that there is some component of a coronal hole fast wind in this signature, however this seems to be a minor component, if even present.

The solar wind speed rose within slightly elevated levels in the period. The number of particles was mostly within background, but showed slightly elevated levels in the shock-like onset of the CME. The associated magnetic field was weak at first, but rose to become slightly elevated. The north-south component was mainly anti-aligned with Earth's field in the shock and then varied between being co- and anti-aligned thereafter.

The net result of the above solar wind measures was below Minor Geomagnetic Storm G1 throughout.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: Solar radiation levels fell to resting background after the Moderate-class X-ray flare associated rise on 31 May (peaking at S2 and 666pfu prior to this period).

Four-Day Space Weather Forecast Summary

Solar Activity: There is a daily chance of isolated Moderate-class flares, held constant given an imminent eastern solar horizon arrival and no further significant sunspot region departures.

Solar Wind / Geomagnetic Activity: Ongoing effects from the passing 03 June CME glance are possible over the remainder of the current UTC weekend, probably waning into the new working week. A second glancing CME from 06 June may then feature between the UTC days of 10 and 11 June, with these events all offering a slight chance of G1 on an otherwise quiet forecast. No coronal hole fast winds are expected to contribute significantly in the four days.

Energetic Particles / Solar Radiation: There is a falling slight chance of S1 or greater solar radiation enhancements, with the main driver being the departure of the most active region onto the far side. Other regions are felt too far east on the facing side of the Sun to contribute, along with their mostly simple stature.